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USD/JPY Current level - 91.97 The pair is in a broad consolidation above 84.78 short-term low. Trading is situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 92.60 and 91.06. The pair is still testing 92.04 resistance and an eventual break above this area will set the focus at 92.90. Important on the downside is 91.60, as a drowning through that level will target the lower boundary of the 92.04-90.60 range.
GBP/USD Current level - 1.4660 The pair is in a downtrend after peaking at 1.7042. Trading is situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.5057 and 1.5851. The sell-off from 1.4759 bottomed above 1.4490 support and we believe, that it was the third part of the consolidation pattern below 1.4780. The intraday bias is positive for 1.4780, en route to 1.5050 resistance area. Crucial on the downside is 1.4620 support.
EUR/GBP Current level - 0.8303 Longer term bias switched to bearish now that the cross has breached key support in 0.8400 area. Intraday: tapped 0.8350 resistance and retreated. The bears still in control, 0.8200 level should provide support. Profit-taking affects gold curbing silver and platinum
USD/CAD Current level - 1.0329 Long term bias for the USD/CAD remains neutral, a solid base is now formed a around parity level. Intraday: short term bias switched to bearish, the recent pull back to 1.0350 should provide resistance along with the new bear trendline. A move below the 61.8% Fib support in 1.0280 area could trigger a sell off towards 1.02 handle.
GBP/JPY Current level - 134.64 Long term bias remains bearish and breaking through the previous year lows keeps the bears in control of the pair. Intraday: A push above 135.10 200 MA in 4 hour could open space for further gains to challenge Junes highs in 136.50. Triangle in place, waiting for a breakout.
Source: © DeltaStock Inc."www.deltastock.com" Market research Forex 24.03.2010Six Forex Pairs Go To Market Asian traders have sent the euro some 90 pips lower, forcing a test of the 1.3400 area. A break lower would have very negative implications for the pair; opening the road towards the 1.3000 area. It is expected that the selling will continue during the upcoming European and U.S. sessions if equity markets do not quickly find buyers Cable The Gbp/Usd followed the euro lower overnight, shedding 70 pips, to trade in the 1.4950 area, which is the same place that has been holding the market since the beginning of March. A break beneath this level could allow cable to test the 1.4700 area. Later in the day, the Annual Budget Release report will be posted from the U.K. This is likely to influence the pair, as the report will show the Government plans to tackle the U.K.'s huge fiscal deficit, which threatens its AAA rating. Aussie The aussie is holding relatively well, even thought the other major currencies have taken strong hits lately. The Aud/Usd's resilience comes from the very strong Australian business cycle, which so far, has avoided most of the credit crisis. As things are looking right now, it would be better to avoid the selling the aussie, and rather choose the much weaker euro or pound. Cad The cad had two attempts this week to push higher, but both have failed so far. The pair is expected to move higher over the medium term, but first it needs to gather additional momentum. The daily trading volumes are declining at a sustainable pace, something that seems to be limiting the pair's ability to move anywhere and easily hold. Swissy Overnight trade has taken the Eur/Chf exchange rate to the lowest level on record, making more plausible a SNB intervention into the market. The Usd/Chf pair has been trading in a 100-pip range for a little more than a week, swinging up and down around the 50-day moving average at 1.0600. Yen Usd/Jpy looks to be building momentum to break to the upside. Such a move has been expected for some time, but until now, the pair has disappointed most investors. A break above this two-week range will probably send the Usd/Jpy straight into the 91.50 area, near the 200-day moving average. Comments, review and recommendations on currencies on 12.04.2010Forex and Dow Jones Recommended LevelsEUR/USD Today's support: - 1.3567, 1.3502 and 1.3455(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3411, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3386. Break of the latter would result in 1.3362. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3341. Continuation will give 1.3326. Today's resistance: - 1.3686 and 1.3703(main). Break would give 1.3726, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.3744. Break of the latter would result in 1.3772. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.3812. Continuation will give 1.3855. USD/JPY Today's support: - 92.73(main). Break would bring 92.51, where correction is possible. Then 92.36, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 92.14. If a strong impulse, we would see 91.82. Continuation would give 91.63. Today's resistance: - 93.49 and 93.83(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 94.12, where also a correction may be. Then 94.36. If a strong impulse, we would see 94.54. Continuation will give 94.71 and 94.93. DOW JONES INDEX Today's support: - 10945.30, 10906.87, 10867.42 and 10843.16(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 10834.10, where correction also can be. Then follows 10811.30. Be there a strong impulse, we shall see 10796.38. Continuation will bring 10783.12. Today's resistance: - 11008.13 and 11035.46(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 1057.35, where a correction may happen. Then follows 11086.30, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 11115.00. Continuation would bring 11138.20 and 11157.38. Recommendations for currencies 14.06.2010EURO The pair continued its upside push where it managed to breach the resistance level for the descending short term channel, surpassing the breached retest line for the previously mentioned bearish technical pattern at 1.2130. These factors alongside bullish momentum will continue appearing through momentum indicators, which encourage us to expect a bullish trend this week considered to be natural trading within the descending medium term channel; targets start at 1.2365 and should be observed when the pair reaches it, since breaching it will pave the way towards 1.2600 – 1.2630. These points out that achieving stability below 1.2060 will make the bullish direction scenario fail and make the bearish trend's pace to return once again. The trading range for this week is among the key support at 1.1945 and the key resistance at 1.2630. The short term trend is to the downside as far as 1.3770 remains intact with targets at 1.1700. Support: 1.2130, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1945, 1.1870 Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is buying the pair around 1.2130 targeting 1.2360 and stop loss below 1.2000, might be appropriate.
GBP The rising wedge pattern continues to affect the pair last week as it manages to achieve negative pressure on the pair, pushing the pair towards 1.4340 after breaching its support. Meanwhile, we notice that 38.2% Fibonacci correction will descend from 1.5497 towards 1.4229, where the pair has resisted pushing upwards in two technical attempts. The pair stabilized above SMA 100, where strong positive signs are appearing through the stochastic, alongside signs of a bullish technical pattern appearing on the four hour chart above. These factors combined make us expect a bullish trend this week; targeting mainly 1.5000 and requiring first the breach and building a base above 1.4705 – mentioned 38.2% Fibonacci -. Keep in mind that the breach of 1.4500 will make the expected ascending scenario to fail. The trading range for this week is among the key support at 1.4240 and the key resistance at 1.5000. The short term trend is to the downside as far as 1.5590 remains intact with targets at 1.3800. Support: 1.4570, 1.4500, 1.4440, 1.4395, 1.4340 Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is buying the pair with the breach of 1.4660 targeting 1.4860 and stop loss below 1.4570, might be appropriate.
JPY The pair stabilized trading within the minor ascending channel within the chief upside channel that appears through the chart above, where the pair has found a hard time in surpassing SMA 50. Meanwhile, support for this minor channel at 91.45 will meet with the breached 50% Fibonacci correction that has currently turned into support. This support the positive signs appearing on Stochastic, where all these factors encourage us to expect a bullish direction this week and its targets will start at 93.30 then 95.00; requiring stability above 90.60. The trading range for this week is among the key support at 90.00 and the key resistance at 95.00. The short term trend is to the downside as far as 101.65 remains intact with targets at 82.60. Support: 91.45, 90.60, 90.00, 89.55, 89.00 Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is buying the pair around 91.45 targeting 93.30 and stop loss below 90.60, might be appropriate.
CHF The pair attempting to surpass the previously breached neckline at 1.1480 – previous sideway support – although it was unable to build a base above it as trading is wedged between 1.1480 and 1.1425. The pair opened the week on a bearish gap but was able to directly cover it – shown in the image above -; therefore, pointing to ongoing negative pressure that is supported by negative signs appearing on Stochastic and thereby making us expect a bearish trend for this week starting with a clear breach of 1.1425, and heading towards 1.1330 then 1.1245 initially. Keep in mind that the breach of 1.1550 could lead the pair to turn into an ascend. The trading range for this week is among the key support at 1.1180 and the key resistance at 1.1675. The short term trend is to the upside as far as 1.0200 remains intact with targets at 1.2295. Support: 1.1425, 1.1330, 1.1300, 1.1245, 1.1180 Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling the pair with the breach of 1.1425 targeting 1.1245 and stop loss above 1.1550, might be appropriate. CAD The pair managed to achieve a breach of support for the last bullish wave shown in red above, accompanied by the breach of the neckline for the bearish technical pattern shown in our past report at 1.0335. These factors alongside stability below SMA 100 make us expect that this week's direction is bearish in overall; targeting 1.0115 and then attempting to achieve negative pressure to achieve the bearish technical targets that are below 1.0000. Keep in mind that the breach of 1.0480 holds the keys to making the expected bearish technical scenario fail. The trading range for this week is among the key support at 0.9925 and the key resistance at 1.0585. The short term trend is to the upside as far as 0.9925 remains intact with targets at 1.1485. Support: 1.0300, 1.0240, 1.0200, 1.0155, 1.0115 Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling the pair around 1.0335 targeting 1.0115 and stop loss above 1.0480, might be appropriate.
The review of currency market FOREX 12.04.2010The US dollar has continued to decrease at the auctions on Friday. Dynamics. The US dollar has continued to decrease at the auctions on Friday whereas today it has opened with a jump downwards. Thus couple EUR/USD has appeared above a marker pip 1.3600, couple GBP/USD has grown above 1.5400 whereas couple USD/CHF has fallen more low 1.0600. The Japanese yen has saved items against dollar, however has decreased against other currencies. Thus couple USD/JPY bargains a little above 93.00 whereas couple EUR/JPY has sharply grown above 127.00. Commodity currencies have become stronger against US dollar. So, couple AUD/USD has closely approached to a marker pip 0.9400, couple NZD/USD has appeared above 0.7100 whereas couple USD/CAD is consolidated a little above 1.0000. The reasons. Optimism growth has struck serious impact to US dollar position. Positive news have unexpectedly entered Sunday from an euroworking area where Ministers of Finance have final agreed a packet of measures on rescue of economy of Greece. On conditions of this agreement, the euroworking area country will grant Greece to 30 billion euro in the first year of realisation of measures. Thus the government of Greece will pay for use of this help under the rate around 5 % within the limits of the three-year loan scheme that is significant below the yield fixed on last week under sovereign debt securities of Greece at a rate of 7 %. The international monetary fund also is ready to join efforts, having offered a long-term loan which will be granted necessarily and at the desire of the Greek authorities. All it became the big positive surprise, especially whereas investors were pessimistic concerning prospects of Greece that has induced them today since morning to purchase the common currency which has hardly grown against US dollar and the Japanese yen including against operation of numerous stop loss orders on limiting of losses. Other currencies, sensitive to variations in market sentiments, also have managed to become stronger against US dollar. That to expect? Today will not be rich with macroeconomic data. Some interest buildings in Canada which in case of improvement, possibly, will help Canadian dollar will submit data at first to become stronger. In the USA the important data today it will not be published. At the same time, market participants will watch closely situation development in the Euroworking area and, in particular, behind, whether approval the reached agreement will meet with in the Central Bank, Eurocommission and EuroParliament. Nevertheless, agreement arrival is the important step aimed at arrival of financial stability in an euroworking area, and hardly it will meet any countersteering from the political authorities. As a whole dollar downing can proceed today within day, however, considering technical factors, and also general instability, it can have unstable character, especially against the common currency. Of that to be afraid? Fixing of profit and receipt on the market of disappointing news is capable to develop a trend on US dollar towards growth. Source: © news agency "the Incorporated markets (UMIS)"
Week wave analysis FOREX (12.04.2010 - 16.04.2010)EUR/USD The survey wave picture is presented on fig. 1.
The situation develops within the limits of the basic variant according to which the impulse showing, most likely, first wave A of zigzag C is at present formed. Component parts we will consider on the four-hour schedule (fig. 2).
Possibly, the final wave [v] within the limits of impulse A is at present formed. Thus, considering dynamics of movement, it is not excluded, that it will take the form of a diagonal triangle at which the third wave is at present formed. At the same time, completely the alternative variant at which wave A was finished on the last minimum is not excluded, and development of intermediate term restoration B (on the schedule has at present begun grey colour). For acknowledgement of the basic variant it is necessary updatings by a local minimum. If growth proceeds, and level of the termination of a wave [iv] will be overcome, it becomes alternative acknowledgement. In a near-term outlook clearing of a wave picture is expected.
The survey wave picture is presented on fig. 1.
The last wave of drop still has every chance to be transformed to a high-grade impulse that will confirm the basic variant of a printed circuit layout according to which shaping of a wave of X restoration (X) in the form of a triple [a] - [b] - [c] is at present finished. Component parts we will consider on the four-hour schedule (fig. 2).
At present the most probable is the variant of a printed circuit layout meaning continuation of development of a wave (iv) of an impulse [c] in the form of a horizontal plane. Thus in a near-term outlook its end and junction to shaping of a final wave (v) is expected. Together with it, continuation of growth of a couple and overcoming of level of the termination of a wave iv will force to search for other variants of a printed circuit layout of a wave [c].
The survey wave picture is presented on fig. 1.
The situation develops within the limits of the accepted basic variant of a printed circuit layout according to which the wave [3] diagonal triangles is finished, and at present there is a shaping of a wave [4] in the form of a triple (A) - (B) - (C). Component parts we will consider on the four-hour schedule (fig. 2).
Possibly, at present there is a wave development (C) triples in the form of an impulse at which the wave 4 is finished or close to end. At the same time, the wave (C) can take the form of a zigzag, and in this case the wave [4] is already finished (on the schedule by grey colour). Nevertheless, the probability of realisation of an alternative variant is not great, and in a near-term outlook continuation of development of a wave (C) in the form of an impulse that will confirm the basic variant of a printed circuit layout is expected.
The survey wave picture is presented on fig. 1.
The situation in a couple has not cleared up yet, however the probability of junction to alternative constantly grows, whereas at the basic variant almost does not remain chances to be confirmed. Nevertheless, it is formal while it remains in force and alternative, according to which the big impulse (1) (on the schedule grey colour means completeness of a wave (B). However is rather probable also) at present develops. Component parts we will consider on the four-hour schedule (fig. 2).
Descending movement within the limits of the basic variant, possibly, has begun with triple W, and at present there is a development of restoration X. At the same time, if the price overcomes level of the presumable termination of a wave (B), it will confirm alternative development in which frameworks the final wave of an impulse (1) in the form of a diagonal triangle is formed. Also the variant at which the given diagonal triangle is only the first wave of final ascending movement (all alternatives is not excluded are represented on the schedule by grey colour). From here in a near-term outlook clearing of a wave picture and acknowledgement of one of the offered variants is expected.
The survey wave picture is presented on fig. 1.
According to the accepted variant of a printed circuit layout descending corrective action has taken the form of a threefold triple at which at present, it is not excluded, wave Z was finished. At the same time, the given fact is not confirmed, and the probability of continuation of its development remains high (on the schedule grey colour). Component parts we will consider on the four-hour schedule (fig. 2).
At present the price has generated a threefold triple which can already be wave Z. At the same time, the variant at which the given triple is only the first wave [a] more long wave Z (on the schedule grey colour) is not excluded. For acknowledgement of the basic variant continuation of dynamical growth in pulse style and overcoming of level of the termination of a wave X is necessary. If it does not take place, junction to alternative is probable. From here in a near-term outlook clearing of a wave picture is expected. Gold (spot) The running variant of a printed circuit layout is presented on fig. 1.
The wave (5), possibly, is finished. Thus descending corrective action, presumably, has begun in the form of triple W-X-Y at which corrective action X is at present close to end. Component parts we will consider on the four-hour schedule (fig. 2).
Obviously, the wave X continues development in the form of a triple [a] - [b] - [c] at which wave development [c] is at present finished. Proceeding from it, in a near-term outlook acknowledgement of its end and junction to shaping of wave Y is expected. Source: © news agency "the Incorporated markets (UMIS)" Wave analysis FOREX for April 2010EUR/USD The running variant of a printed circuit layout of the month schedule is presented on fig. 1.
The long-term situation still was not changed and develops within the limits of the accepted variant of a printed circuit layout which means the termination of a long-term impulse [1] or [A] and development of corrective action [2] or [B]. At the same time, the alternative at which the wave [2] or [B] is finished is saved, and at present already there is a development of long-term growth [3] or [C] (on the schedule grey colour). Component parts we will consider on fig. 2.
According to the basic variant, waves C and (B) are finished, and shaping of impulse A of a wave (C) which can take the form of a zigzag at present is already finished. However if drop proceeds, and wave A as a result of signs other form, for example, a double zigzag, junction to the alternative meaning development of a wave [3] or [C] (on the schedule grey colour) in this case is probable. Nevertheless, more preferable there is a basic variant, and in a near-term outlook end of wave A and junction to shaping of corrective action B is expected.
The survey wave picture is presented on fig. 1.
Possibly, in the long-term plan corrective action a-b-c at which shaping of a wave has begun with is formed. Thus its first wave [A], most likely, will take the form of a double triple (W) - (X) - (Y). Other waveforms [A] are not excluded also. Component parts we will consider on fig. 2.
The situation as a whole was not changed. The accepted basic variant of a printed circuit layout remains in force and assumes, that the wave (W) is finished, and at present there is a development of restoration (X) which, most likely, will take the form of a triple. Thus its first wave W is finished, and also the wave X is close to end. From here in a near-term outlook acknowledgement of end of a wave X and junction to shaping of restoration Y is expected.
The survey wave picture is presented on fig. 1.
The long-term situation develops within the limits of the accepted variant of a printed circuit layout according to which the horizontal triangle at-sight waves of IV impulse is finished, and shaping of a final wave V in the form of a diagonal triangle at present proceeds. Component parts we will consider on fig. 2.
It is obvious, that the wave V will take the form of a diagonal triangle at which, possibly, shaping of waves (C) and [3] was finished. Development of a wave [4] which can take the form, for example, a zigzag Thus has at present begun. Also development of this wave in the form of a horizontal triangle (on the schedule by grey colour) is not excluded. In a near-term outlook continuation of development of a wave [4] and clearing of its form is expected.
The running variant of a printed circuit layout is presented on fig. 1.
Long-term expectations were not changed. The big corrective action (a) - (b) - (c) is presumably formed. The wave (a) is At the moment generated and the first waves of corrective action (b) are formed. Thus its first wave w, possibly, an example the zigzag form [A] - [B] - [C] at which corrective action [B] at present develops. At the same time, the probability of junction to alternative at which at present already there is a wave development [C] (on the schedule grey colour) has considerably grown. Component parts we will consider on fig. 2.
The first wave (A) corrective actions [B] is finished. Also, possibly, the second wave (B) is finished, however is final given fact will be confirmed after making fast of the price below a marker pip 0.8500. Till this moment, considering dynamics of movement of the last months, the probability of updating by a local maximum is saved. Thus if the wave (B) is transformed to a high-grade impulse (possible variants of it are put on the schedule by grey colour), junction to the alternative described above will be carried out. In a near-term outlook clearing of a picture and acknowledgement of one of the offered variants is expected.
The running wave printed circuit layout of the month schedule is presented on fig. 1.
According to the accepted variant the downward stroke from TOP was generated in the form of a complete impulse [A]. Thus also the first wave (A) restoration [B] is finished, and the second wave (B) is close to end. Component parts we will consider on fig. 2.
The wave (B) is close to end, and its final waves are at present formed. From here in a near-term outlook acknowledgement of its end and junction to shaping of long-term restoration (C) is expected. Source: © news agency "the Incorporated markets (UMIS)"
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